Date: September 2, 2025
Subject: Analysis of 881 Graduate Surveys, including Age Cohort Analysis and Comparison to Canadian Benchmarks

1) Executive Summary

This report analyzes 881 survey responses from recent Young Drivers of Canada (YDC) graduates (graduates from 2023–– August 15 2025). 

Program‑effectiveness:

• Not involved in any collision: 811/881 = 92.1%.
• Involved but not at fault: 41/881 = 4.7%.
• Combined “collision‑free or not‑at‑fault” (safe‑of‑fault): (811 + 41) / 881 = 852/881 = 96.7%.

In short, 96.7% of YDC graduates either had no collision or, if they did, they were not at fault. This “safe‑of‑fault” share is consistently high across age groups, even among the highest‑risk late‑teen drivers. The remaining 3.3% (29/881) were at fault in a collision.

The age pattern mirrors Canadian public statistics: risk is highest in the late teens/early 20s and declines with age. Ontario’s Road Safety Annual Report (ORSAR 2020) shows the greatest annual collision involvement among 18–24, then a drop thereafter; Transport Canada’s national analysis shows the same age‑risk gradient for fatal‑collision involvement (highest at 15–24). The cohort’s 96.7% “safe‑of‑fault” result is therefore achieved in the very age range that is typically riskiest for Canadian drivers.

2) Survey Methodology and Sample

• Source: Young Drivers of Canada Graduate Survey v3 non‑duplicate.fmp12.xlsx.
• Deduplication: Performed; all 881 unique records were used.
• Respondent profile: Ages 16–66 (median 18).
• Key fields used:
  • Collision status since course: No / Yes, not at fault / Yes, at fault
  • Insurance claim since course: Yes/No
  • Traffic ticket since course: Yes/No
  • Skill/behavior & confidence items: Likert 1–5
  • Self‑reported “avoided a collision due to a YDC skill”: Yes/Not sure/No

3) Key Findings

3.1 Primary Finding: Collision Outcomes (N = 881)

• Total with any collision: 70/881 = 7.95%.
  • Not at fault: 41 (58.6% of collisions).
  • At fault: 29 (41.4% of collisions) → 29/881 = 3.29% of the entire sample.
• Collision‑free: 811/881 = 92.1%.
• Program‑effectiveness metric: Collision‑free or not‑at‑fault = 96.7% (852/881).

Interpretation: Nearly 97% of graduates are either untouched by collisions or, if an event occurred, not responsible. Only 3.3% of all graduates report an at‑fault collision since training.

3.2 Collisions Involvement Breakdown (fault mix & age)

• Fault mix among the 70 collisions: Not‑at‑fault 41 (58.6%), At‑fault 29 (41.4%).
• At‑fault concentration: All at‑fault collisions reported occurred among 16–19‑year‑olds in this dataset.
• Safe‑of‑fault share by age band (No collision or Not‑at‑fault):

Takeaway: Even in the riskiest late‑teen years, >92% of grads are safe‑of‑fault; from age 20+, the observed at‑fault count rounds to zero in this sample.

3.3 Proactive Skill Application & Collision Avoidance

• Avoided a collision due to a YDC skill: 56.8% “Yes”; 25.5% “Not sure”; 17.7% “No.”
• Habit & scanning behaviors (Likert 1–5): Drivers with no collisions show a higher habit index (avg 4.51) than those with any collision (avg 4.23), consistent with the premise that predictive/space‑management habits correlate with lower crash involvement.

3.4 Driver Confidence and Habit Formation

• Confidence (1–5 scale):
  • “I feel more confident on the road after YD” — 4.66 average.
  • “YD helped reduce my anxiety” — 4.38.
  • “YD skills helped me predict/avoid danger” — 4.54.
• The habit index rises modestly with age (late‑teens ≈ 4.44–4.47, 35+ ≈ 4.69–4.75), consistent with experience.

3.5 Infractions and Insurance Claims

• Traffic tickets since course: 51/881 = 5.79%.
  • Collision rate among ticketed drivers: 39.2%, vs 6.0% among non‑ticketed.
• Insurance claims related to a collision since course: 36/881 = 4.09%.
  • Among those with any collision, ≈47% reported a claim; 0.4% among non‑colliders.

Implication: When a ticket occurs, collision risk is dramatically higher; targeted post‑ticket coaching (speed management, following distance, hazard scanning) is a practical lever.

4) Age Cohort Analysis (grouped)

To complement the bands above, here are four broader cohorts with the program‑effectiveness metric emphasized (safe‑of‑fault share):

Key insight: The 16–17 group—typically Canada’s highest‑risk new drivers—still achieves a ~97% safe‑of‑fault outcome. The 18–20 group remains >94% safe‑of‑fault, then the rate reaches ~100% in the older cohorts within this sample (noting smaller Ns).

5) Comparison to Available Benchmarks for Canadian Drivers

How to read this: Public benchmarks are generally annual and police/administrative‑report based; YDC is cumulative and includes not‑at‑fault as part of the “effective safety” picture. Comparisons are therefore directional.

• Ontario ORSAR 2020 (annual, population‑level) shows the highest share of licensed drivers involved in collisions in the late teens/early 20s (e.g., 18–24), then a decline with age. The YDC cohort’s age curve matches this broader pattern, but safe‑of‑fault share (96.7%) reflects both no collision and not‑at‑fault outcomes across up to ~2 years of exposure—strong performance given the age mix.
• Transport Canada (2020) shows drivers 15–24 have the highest fatal‑collision involvement per 100,000 licensed drivers; rates drop as age increases. Again, YDC’s safe‑of‑fault results are achieved in the exact age span that is usually riskiest, underscoring the program’s effectiveness.

Bottom line on benchmarks: In a national and provincial context where late‑teen risk is intrinsically high, the YDC cohort’s 96.7% “collision‑free or not‑at‑fault” result is very strong—and consistent with the risk‑reduction intent of structured novice training.

6) Limitations

• Self‑reported outcomes: Can include non‑police‑attended events and may introduce recall/reporting variance.
• No matched control group: YDC did not survey a comparable group of non‑YDC drivers under identical conditions.
• Exposure differences: “Since course” varies by respondent (months to ~2 years). Public benchmarks are annual.
• Apples‑to‑apples caution: Because effectiveness metric (safe‑of‑fault) blends “no collision” and “not at fault,” and public sources often report annual involvement or at‑fault separately, comparisons are interpretive.

7) Conclusions

1. Program effectiveness is high across all ages.
   • 92.1% of graduates report no collision.
   • An additional 4.7% were not at fault if a collision occurred.
   • Together, 96.7% of all graduates are “collision‑free or not‑at‑fault.” Only 3.3% report an at‑fault collision.
2. Risk concentrates where expected—yet outcomes remain strong.
   • All at‑fault collisions occurred among 16–19‑year‑olds—exactly the Canadian risk hotspot. Even so, safe‑of‑fault remains >92% in that late‑teen band and ≥94% by 18–20, reaching ~100% from age 20+ in this sample.
3. Context with Canadian benchmarks.
   • Provincial/national data confirm the late‑teen/early‑20s risk crest; YDC results show high safe‑of‑fault performance precisely in that zone, supporting YDC’s contribution to risk reduction for novice drivers.